Hank Cetola: Can Taylor Swift swing an election?

Hank Cetola
Hank Cetola

I graduated from college in 1965. The ’60s and ’70s were a turbulent time in the United States. Black people were fighting for their civil rights. The second wave of the feminist movement (women’s liberation) was taking hold. We were in the middle of a vicious war in Vietnam. I had been listening to the popular musical groups of the time: The Kingston Trio (“Where Have All the Flowers Gone”), Bob Dylan (“Blowin’ in the Wind”), Barry McGuire (“Eve of Destruction”), Aretha Franklin (“Respect”), Marvin Gaye (“What’s Going On?”) — you get the idea. These songs were not just entertainment; the lyrics were making me think about some of the injustices in the world. They were shaping my ethical and political values, which remain with me. 

Songs and the people who sing them can powerfully influence young people. We are in turbulent times again, with our nation more divided than it was in the ’60s and ’70s. Perhaps the most divided that it has been since the Civil War. And once again, we are beginning to see the powerful influence of songs and their singers. One of those singers is, ironically, Talyor Swift. I say “ironically” because she started out in country music, which has strong appeal with conservative politics as both are seen as champions of hardworking, God-fearing, freedom-loving Americans. And Swift was definitely a country singer, winning 12 Country Music Association awards between 2007, when she won the New Artist of the Year Award, and 2017 when she won Song of the Year. Republicans loved her, and Republican politicians sought her endorsement. Then things changed.

In the 2018 Tennessee Senate race, she spoke out against Republican candidate Marsha Blackburn and endorsed the Democratic candidate, Phil Bredesen, in an Instagram post in which she also stated:

“I always have and always will cast my vote based on which candidate will protect and fight for the human rights I believe we all deserve in this country. I believe in the fight for LGBTQ rights, and that any form of discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender is WRONG. I believe that the systemic racism we still see in this country towards people of color is terrifying, sickening and prevalent. I cannot vote for someone who will not be willing to fight for dignity for ALL Americans, no matter their skin color, gender or who they love.”

She got 2,217,504 “Likes.” The Republican establishment went bonkers.

The Republican establishment is afraid of the “Swifties,” devoted fans of Taylor Swift. They are primarily Gen Z adults and Millennial white, urban or suburban women, although 48 percent are males. Fifty-five percent are Democrats, and 23 percent are Independents. They are devoted to Swift and follow her suggestions. For example, she posted on National Voter Registration Day on Instagram to encourage young people to go to Vote.org and register to vote. As a result, over 35,000 did, a 23 percent increase over the same day last year, including a 115 percent increase in 18-year-olds. And Republicans do not like young voters.

It seems that young voters are pro-choice, favor LGBQT+ rights, want action on climate change and gun violence, and agree with Swift that they cannot “vote for someone who will not be willing to fight for dignity for ALL Americans, no matter their skin color, gender or who they love.” The absence of a “red wave” in the 2022 election largely happened because there was an increase in young voters. 

By Thursday after the election, conservatives were arguing to raise the voting age. And this year, a Texas Republican representative introduced a bill to ban polling locations on college campuses. It is clear that they are afraid of the youth vote, a vote that Taylor Swift seems to be able to motivate. When she speaks to her fans, they listen and act. As MSNBC’s Ari Melber said, her fan base “scares certain people on the right, who see its power, see its movement, see its civic reach.” 

Taylor Swift doesn’t have to change anyone’s mind. She just needs to motivate those young people who share her views to get to the ballot box, especially in swing states. It wouldn’t take much of a voter surge to give Democrats an edge. And because she has already shown that she can get young voters to the polls, it is no wonder that the Republican establishment fears her power. In past elections, young voters have shown no tolerance for Trump or the GOP’s policies on abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, gun violence, and climate change. And when it is time to vote in 2024, there will be substantially more of them since the last time Trump was on the ballot.

So, can Taylor Swift influence the outcome of the next election? I think so. While the Republicans fear her, the Democrats should embrace her. They need the voters she inspires.

Hank Cetola lives in Adrian.

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